:Product: 0826RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Aug 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 238 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Aug 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at
26/1214Z from Region 3089 (S21E44). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (27 Aug, 28 Aug, 29 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 381 km/s at 26/1200Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
26/1957Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
26/0429Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3604 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (27 Aug, 28 Aug)
and quiet to active levels on day three (29 Aug). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (27 Aug, 28
Aug, 29 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Aug 119
Predicted   27 Aug-29 Aug 120/118/116
90 Day Mean        26 Aug 118

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Aug  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Aug  006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Aug-29 Aug  007/008-007/008-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/35
Minor Storm           05/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/10
Minor Storm           20/30/25
Major-severe storm    15/25/50