:Product: 0827RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Aug 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 239 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Aug 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
27/0240Z from Region 3088 (S24W72). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (28 Aug) and expected to be
low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class
flare on days two and three (29 Aug, 30 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 439 km/s at 27/2058Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 27/0935Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at
27/1157Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 27 pfu at 27/1220Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2178 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (28 Aug), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (29 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day
three (30 Aug). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one
(28 Aug) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and
three (29 Aug, 30 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Aug-30 Aug
Class M    55/35/30
Class X    25/10/10
Proton     25/10/10
PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Aug 128
Predicted   28 Aug-30 Aug 125/122/120
90 Day Mean        27 Aug 118

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Aug  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Aug  011/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Aug-30 Aug  014/018-020/028-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Aug-30 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor Storm           30/30/15
Major-severe storm    05/15/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/05/15
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    65/70/50