:Product: 0828RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Aug 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 240 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Aug 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at
28/1619Z from Region 3088 (S27W87). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (29 Aug) and expected to be
low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class
flare on days two and three (30 Aug, 31 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 525 km/s at 28/0734Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 27/2259Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
28/0924Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 12 pfu at 27/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 138 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (29 Aug), quiet to
active levels on day two (30 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (31 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing
threshold on day one (29 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug
Class M    55/35/35
Class X    25/10/10
Proton     50/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Aug 252
Predicted   29 Aug-31 Aug 126/120/120
90 Day Mean        28 Aug 120

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Aug  011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Aug  013/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Aug-31 Aug  020/030-010/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/20
Minor Storm           30/15/05
Major-severe storm    15/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    70/50/25