:Product: 0830RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Aug 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 242 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Aug 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
30/0213Z from Region 3088 (S27W0*). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (31 Aug, 01 Sep,
02 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 682 km/s at 30/1931Z. Total IMF reached 15
nT at 30/1919Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
30/0234Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 334 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (31 Aug) and quiet levels
on days two and three (01 Sep, 02 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Aug 126
Predicted   31 Aug-02 Sep 115/110/110
90 Day Mean        30 Aug 120

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Aug  013/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Aug  011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep  007/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           30/15/20
Major-severe storm    25/15/10