:Product: 0831RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Aug 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 243 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Aug 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
31/0750Z from Region 3089 (S22W13). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Sep, 02 Sep,
03 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 617 km/s at 31/0253Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 30/2113Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
31/2044Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 172 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (01 Sep, 02 Sep) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (03 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Aug 113
Predicted   01 Sep-03 Sep 110/110/115
90 Day Mean        31 Aug 121

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Aug  013/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Aug  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep  006/005-006/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           15/20/15
Major-severe storm    15/10/15