:Product: 0903RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Sep 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
03/1648Z from Region 3089 (S22W61). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one and two (04 Sep, 05 Sep) and expected to be very low with a
chance for a C-class flares on day three (06 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 588 km/s at 03/1002Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 03/0726Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 03/0847Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 309 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (04 Sep), quiet to
minor storm levels on day two (05 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day
three (06 Sep). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one and two (04 Sep, 05 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
Class M    30/30/05
Class X    10/10/01
Proton     10/10/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Sep 123
Predicted   04 Sep-06 Sep 122/122/118
90 Day Mean        03 Sep 121

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep  010/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Sep  019/024
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep  020/030-021/028-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/40/40
Minor Storm           40/35/20
Major-severe storm    25/15/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/20
Minor Storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    75/60/35