:Product: 0904RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Sep 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 247 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Sep 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
04/1638Z from Region 3089 (S23W75). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (05 Sep) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class
flares on days two and three (06 Sep, 07 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at active to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 687 km/s at 04/1108Z. Total IMF
reached 13 nT at 04/0147Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-12 nT at 04/0142Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 6689 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (05 Sep) and quiet
to active levels on days two and three (06 Sep, 07 Sep). Protons greater
than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (05
Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep
Class M    35/05/05
Class X    10/01/01
Proton     10/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Sep 128
Predicted   05 Sep-07 Sep 126/122/120
90 Day Mean        04 Sep 122

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Sep  023/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Sep  040/065
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Sep-07 Sep  025/034-017/018-012/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/30
Minor Storm           40/15/10
Major-severe storm    20/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/20/20
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    70/30/20