:Product: 0905RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Sep 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
05/1805Z from Region 3089 (S23W88). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (06 Sep) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class
flares on days two and three (07 Sep, 08 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 680 km/s at 04/2333Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 04/2319Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 05/1251Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 9252 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (06 Sep), quiet to active
levels on day two (07 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three
(08 Sep). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day one (06 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
Class M    30/05/05
Class X    10/01/01
Proton     10/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Sep 130
Predicted   06 Sep-08 Sep 125/125/122
90 Day Mean        05 Sep 122

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep  033/060
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Sep  025/033
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep  018/020-010/012-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/25
Minor Storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/25
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    30/20/15