:Product: 0909RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Sep 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 252 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Sep 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
09/0213Z from Region 3096 (N16E33). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Sep,
11 Sep, 12 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 537 km/s at 08/2308Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 09/0658Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
09/0950Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 11844 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (10 Sep) and quiet levels
on days two and three (11 Sep, 12 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Sep 126
Predicted   10 Sep-12 Sep 127/127/125
90 Day Mean        09 Sep 123

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Sep  017/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Sep  011/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Sep-12 Sep  007/008-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/05