:Product: 0911RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Sep 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 254 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Sep 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
11/1438Z from Region 3098 (N18W22). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (12
Sep, 13 Sep, 14 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 511 km/s at 10/2104Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 11/0913Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
11/1824Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 21637 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (12 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (13 Sep, 14 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Sep-14 Sep
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Sep 152
Predicted   12 Sep-14 Sep 150/148/143
90 Day Mean        11 Sep 123

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Sep  010/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Sep  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Sep-14 Sep  006/005-009/010-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Sep-14 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/20
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/20/20