:Product: 0912RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Sep 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 255 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Sep 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
11/2228Z from Region 3098 (N18W22). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Sep, 14 Sep,
15 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 446 km/s at 11/2127Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 12/1224Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
12/0509Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 6 pfu at 12/1345Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6040 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (13 Sep,
14 Sep, 15 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
day one (13 Sep) and have a chance of crossing threshold on days two and
three (14 Sep, 15 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep
Class M    25/30/30
Class X    01/05/05
Proton     20/25/25
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Sep 150
Predicted   13 Sep-15 Sep 150/155/155
90 Day Mean        12 Sep 123

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Sep  009/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Sep  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Sep-15 Sep  009/010-008/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    20/20/30