:Product: 0913RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Sep 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 256 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Sep 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
12/2344Z from Region 3098 (N18W36). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Sep, 15 Sep,
16 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 371 km/s at 12/2235Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
13/0211Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
13/0454Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2 pfu at 13/0325Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4758 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (14 Sep, 15 Sep) and quiet to
active levels on day three (16 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (14 Sep, 15 Sep, 16 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Sep-16 Sep
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Sep 154
Predicted   14 Sep-16 Sep 155/155/160
90 Day Mean        13 Sep 123

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Sep  009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Sep  007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Sep-16 Sep  005/005-006/005-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Sep-16 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/30
Minor Storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/20/30