:Product: 0914RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Sep 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
14/1019Z from Region 3098 (N18W65). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Sep, 16 Sep,
17 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 340 km/s at 14/1945Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at
14/1919Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
14/1932Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2 pfu at 14/0640Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 15800 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (15 Sep), quiet to active levels on day
two (16 Sep) and unsettled to active levels on day three (17 Sep).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (15 Sep, 16 Sep, 17 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Sep 144
Predicted   15 Sep-17 Sep 155/150/145
90 Day Mean        14 Sep 123

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Sep  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep  006/005-012/015-015/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/30/40
Minor Storm           05/10/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    20/30/35