:Product: 0915RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Sep 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
15/0633Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (16 Sep, 17 Sep) and
expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day three
(18 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 493 km/s at 15/1745Z. Total IMF reached 16
nT at 14/2317Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at
14/2153Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 921 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (16 Sep), unsettled to active
levels on day two (17 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three
(18 Sep). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on days one and two (16 Sep, 17 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
Class M    35/30/05
Class X    05/05/01
Proton     10/10/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Sep 140
Predicted   16 Sep-18 Sep 140/135/125
90 Day Mean        15 Sep 123

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep  010/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Sep  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep  014/015-016/018-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/40/30
Minor Storm           15/20/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    30/35/30