:Product: 0916RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Sep 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Sep 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at
16/0949Z from Region 3098 (N18W91). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (17 Sep) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an
M-class flare on days two and three (18 Sep, 19 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 372 km/s at 16/1308Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at
15/2138Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
16/1540Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3 pfu at 16/1120Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 304 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (17 Sep) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (18 Sep, 19 Sep). Protons greater
than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (17
Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep
Class M    40/20/20
Class X    10/05/05
Proton     10/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Sep 131
Predicted   17 Sep-19 Sep 125/120/115
90 Day Mean        16 Sep 123

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Sep  008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Sep  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Sep-19 Sep  012/018-010/010-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/15
Minor Storm           20/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/15
Major-severe storm    35/30/10