:Product: 0919RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Sep 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 262 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Sep 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
19/0230Z from Region 3102 (S26W13). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (20
Sep, 21 Sep, 22 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 552 km/s at 18/2326Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 18/2241Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
19/1058Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 554 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (20 Sep), quiet levels on
day two (21 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day three (22 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Sep 128
Predicted   20 Sep-22 Sep 135/135/135
90 Day Mean        19 Sep 123

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Sep  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Sep  009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep  008/008-005/005-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/35
Minor Storm           05/01/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           20/15/30
Major-severe storm    20/10/30