:Product: 0920RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Sep 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 263 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Sep 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
20/1122Z from Region 3102 (S26W26). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Sep, 22 Sep,
23 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 522 km/s at 19/2250Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 20/1518Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
20/1735Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 329 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (21 Sep), quiet to active levels on day
two (22 Sep) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (23 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Sep-23 Sep
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Sep 137
Predicted   21 Sep-23 Sep 140/140/138
90 Day Mean        20 Sep 123

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Sep  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Sep  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Sep-23 Sep  005/005-010/012-016/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Sep-23 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/35/45
Minor Storm           01/15/25
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           15/30/30
Major-severe storm    10/30/45