:Product: 0922RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Sep 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
22/1134Z from Region 3105 (S17E32). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Sep, 24 Sep,
25 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 461 km/s at 21/2108Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
21/2110Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
22/1114Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 420 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (23 Sep) and
unsettled levels on days two and three (24 Sep, 25 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Sep 137
Predicted   23 Sep-25 Sep 138/130/130
90 Day Mean        22 Sep 123

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Sep  007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep  016/020-013/015-011/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                45/40/35
Minor Storm           25/20/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    45/35/30