:Product: 0926RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Sep 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 269 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Sep 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
26/0911Z from Region 3107 (S25E01). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Sep, 28 Sep,
29 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 336 km/s at 26/2053Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
26/2056Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
26/1847Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2641 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (27 Sep, 28 Sep)
and quiet levels on day three (29 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep
Class M    30/30/25
Class X    05/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Sep 135
Predicted   27 Sep-29 Sep 135/140/140
90 Day Mean        26 Sep 125

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Sep  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Sep  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Sep-29 Sep  008/008-007/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/15
Minor Storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/20/15