:Product: 0927RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Sep 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 270 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Sep 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
27/0646Z from Region 3107 (S24W13). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (28 Sep) and expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (29 Sep,
30 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 810 km/s at 27/1630Z. Total IMF
reached 31 nT at 27/0428Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-17 nT at 27/0925Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 1256 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (28 Sep), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (29 Sep) and quiet to minor storm levels on
day three (30 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on days one, two, and three (28 Sep, 29 Sep, 30 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep
Class M    25/20/15
Class X    05/05/01
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Sep 135
Predicted   28 Sep-30 Sep 135/135/130
90 Day Mean        27 Sep 126

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Sep  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Sep  018/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep  015/016-007/008-014/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/40
Minor Storm           10/05/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    30/15/45