:Product: 0928RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Sep 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 271 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Sep 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
28/0047Z from Region 3107 (S28W25). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (29 Sep) and expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (30 Sep,
01 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 621 km/s at 27/2202Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 27/2130Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
27/2100Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 120 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (29 Sep), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (30 Sep) and minor storm to major storm levels
on day three (01 Oct). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance
of crossing threshold on day one (29 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Sep-01 Oct
Class M    25/20/15
Class X    05/05/01
Proton     10/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Sep 135
Predicted   29 Sep-01 Oct 135/130/130
90 Day Mean        28 Sep 126

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Sep  033/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Sep  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Sep-01 Oct  007/008-014/020-038/060

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Sep-01 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/40/30
Minor Storm           05/25/50
Major-severe storm    01/05/20
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/05
Minor Storm           20/30/20
Major-severe storm    15/45/75