:Product: 0929RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Sep 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
29/1201Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Sep, 01 Oct,
02 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 550 km/s at 29/1416Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 29/0614Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
29/0728Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 133 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (30 Sep), minor storm to
major storm levels on day two (01 Oct) and active to minor storm levels
on day three (02 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Sep 137
Predicted   30 Sep-02 Oct 148/146/146
90 Day Mean        29 Sep 127

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Sep  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct  014/020-038/060-029/040

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/30
Minor Storm           40/40/35
Major-severe storm    15/25/15
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/05/05
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    65/75/60