:Product: 0930RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Sep 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
30/1622Z from Region 3112 (N20E76). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Oct, 02 Oct,
03 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 594 km/s at 30/0556Z. Total IMF reached 15
nT at 30/0645Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
30/0745Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 129 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to major storm levels on day one (01 Oct), active to
minor storm levels on day two (02 Oct) and unsettled to minor storm
levels on day three (03 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Sep 137
Predicted   01 Oct-03 Oct 140/140/135
90 Day Mean        30 Sep 127

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Sep  015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct  032/050-028/038-019/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/40
Minor Storm           40/35/30
Major-severe storm    25/15/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/15
Minor Storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    75/65/50