:Product: 1001RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Oct 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Oct 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
01/2010Z from Region 3110 (N17W38). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (02 Oct, 03 Oct, 04 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 504 km/s at 01/1242Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
01/1508Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
01/0840Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 157 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (02 Oct, 03
Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (04 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Oct 148
Predicted   02 Oct-04 Oct 145/150/150
90 Day Mean        01 Oct 127

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Sep  012/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Oct  012/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct  020/028-015/022-011/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/35
Minor Storm           30/25/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    50/45/30