:Product: 1004RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Oct 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 277 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Oct 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
03/2122Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (05 Oct, 06 Oct)
and likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day three (07 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 605 km/s at 04/1444Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 03/2340Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
03/2336Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 414 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (05 Oct), quiet to
active levels on day two (06 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (07 Oct). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one
(05 Oct), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (06 Oct) and
have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (07 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
Class M    65/60/55
Class X    30/25/20
Proton     35/25/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Oct 152
Predicted   05 Oct-07 Oct 152/150/148
90 Day Mean        04 Oct 129

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Oct  016/026
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Oct  017/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct  013/016-010/014-009/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                45/35/30
Minor Storm           30/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/25
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    50/30/20