:Product: 1006RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Oct 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
06/0202Z from Region 3112 (N22E09). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class or X-class flares on day one (07 Oct) and expected
to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an
X-class flare on days two and three (08 Oct, 09 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 542 km/s at 06/1847Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 06/0850Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
06/1126Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2404 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (07 Oct, 09 Oct)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (08 Oct). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (07 Oct, 08
Oct, 09 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
Class M    50/45/45
Class X    25/20/20
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Oct 156
Predicted   07 Oct-09 Oct 156/154/154
90 Day Mean        06 Oct 130

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct  011/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Oct  013/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct  009/014-009/010-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/25/35
Minor Storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    30/20/25