:Product: 1008RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Oct 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
08/0040Z from Region 3112 (N22W16). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (09 Oct, 10 Oct, 11 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 553 km/s at 08/1722Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 08/0410Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
08/1602Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3556 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (09 Oct, 10 Oct)
and quiet levels on day three (11 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Oct 157
Predicted   09 Oct-11 Oct 156/156/156
90 Day Mean        08 Oct 130

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct  012/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Oct  011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct  009/010-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    15/20/10