:Product: 1011RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Oct 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
11/0842Z from Region 3112 (N22W54). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (12 Oct, 13 Oct, 14 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 517 km/s at 11/0419Z.  Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4649 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (12 Oct) and quiet levels on
days two and three (13 Oct, 14 Oct). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (12 Oct, 13 Oct, 14 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Oct 150
Predicted   12 Oct-14 Oct 150/150/146
90 Day Mean        11 Oct 130

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct  009/012-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/10/10
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/15/20
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/10