:Product: 1013RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Oct 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
13/0019Z from Region 3112 (N23W80). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (14 Oct, 15 Oct) and
expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day
three (16 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 448 km/s at 13/2010Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
13/1939Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
13/1740Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 4331 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (14 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (15 Oct, 16 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
Class M    25/25/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Oct 130
Predicted   14 Oct-16 Oct 130/120/115
90 Day Mean        13 Oct 129

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct  006/005-007/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/25/25
Minor Storm           01/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    10/35/35