:Product: 1015RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Oct 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
15/1432Z from Region 3112 (N23W0*). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Oct,
17 Oct, 18 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 580 km/s at 15/2013Z. Total IMF
reached 13 nT at 14/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 14/2243Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 149 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (16 Oct) and quiet levels on
days two and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Oct 115
Predicted   16 Oct-18 Oct 115/110/112
90 Day Mean        15 Oct 128

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct  016/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Oct  016/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct  011/012-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/10/10
Minor Storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/15/15
Major-severe storm    45/15/15