:Product: 1016RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Oct 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
16/1606Z from Region 3123 (N27W68). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Oct,
18 Oct, 19 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 606 km/s at 16/1309Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 15/2131Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
15/2101Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 808 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 Oct) and quiet levels
on days two and three (18 Oct, 19 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Oct 119
Predicted   17 Oct-19 Oct 120/115/115
90 Day Mean        16 Oct 127

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct  015/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct  009/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/10/10
Minor Storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/15/15
Major-severe storm    35/15/15