:Product: 1017RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Oct 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
17/1714Z from Region 3124 (S36W56). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Oct,
19 Oct, 20 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 649 km/s at 17/0425Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 16/2141Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
17/1404Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 889 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (18 Oct, 19 Oct) and quiet to
active levels on day three (20 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
Class M    05/05/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Oct 126
Predicted   18 Oct-20 Oct 121/118/115
90 Day Mean        17 Oct 127

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct  011/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Oct  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct  007/008-006/005-012/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/35
Minor Storm           05/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/15/30
Major-severe storm    25/15/45