:Product: 1020RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Oct 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Oct 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
20/1653Z from Region 3122 (N26W92). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Oct,
22 Oct, 23 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 488 km/s at 20/1733Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 20/1145Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
20/1217Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1290 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (21 Oct, 22 Oct, 23
Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Oct-23 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Oct 116
Predicted   21 Oct-23 Oct 115/115/120
90 Day Mean        20 Oct 127

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Oct  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Oct  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct  005/005-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Oct-23 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/10/10