:Product: 1021RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Oct 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Oct 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
21/0717Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (22 Oct, 23 Oct, 24 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 429 km/s at 20/2323Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 21/2046Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
21/0524Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1164 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (22 Oct, 24 Oct)
and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (23 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Oct 109
Predicted   22 Oct-24 Oct 110/112/110
90 Day Mean        21 Oct 127

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Oct   NA/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Oct  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct  009/012-016/020-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/40/25
Minor Storm           10/25/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    40/60/35