:Product: 1022RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Oct 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
22/0542Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Oct,
24 Oct, 25 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 418 km/s at 22/2044Z. Total IMF
reached 12 nT at 22/0714Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 22/1220Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 572 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (23 Oct) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (24 Oct, 25 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Oct 105
Predicted   23 Oct-25 Oct 105/100/100
90 Day Mean        22 Oct 127

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Oct  018/028
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct  020/025-011/015-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/25
Minor Storm           30/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    70/40/35