:Product: 1023RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Oct 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
23/1822Z from Region 3130 (S24E09). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Oct,
25 Oct, 26 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 585 km/s at 23/1411Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 23/1659Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
22/2220Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 175 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (24 Oct), quiet to
active levels on day two (25 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (26
Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Oct 108
Predicted   24 Oct-26 Oct 104/100/100
90 Day Mean        23 Oct 127

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct  087/025
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Oct  012/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct  014/017-010/012-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/05
Minor Storm           20/10/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    60/35/10