:Product: 1024RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Oct 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
24/0802Z from Region 3126 (S10W51). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Oct,
26 Oct, 27 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 593 km/s at 23/2136Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 23/2219Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
24/0043Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 103 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (25 Oct) and quiet levels
on days two and three (26 Oct, 27 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Oct 115
Predicted   25 Oct-27 Oct 115/115/115
90 Day Mean        24 Oct 127

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Oct  139/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Oct  009/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct  008/008-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/20/15