:Product: 1027RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Oct 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
27/0126Z from Region 3133 (N26E46). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Oct,
29 Oct, 30 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 473 km/s at 27/2017Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 27/1725Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
27/1839Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 128 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (28 Oct), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (29 Oct) and unsettled to active levels on day
three (30 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Oct 130
Predicted   28 Oct-30 Oct 125/125/125
90 Day Mean        27 Oct 128

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct  083/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Oct  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct  008/008-014/018-019/022

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/40/35
Minor Storm           10/25/20
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    35/60/55