:Product: 1029RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Oct 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 302 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Oct 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
29/0956Z from Region 3130 (S24W71). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (30 Oct, 31 Oct, 01 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 614 km/s at 29/0242Z. Total IMF
reached 12 nT at 29/0017Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 29/0021Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 1040 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (30 Oct), quiet to
active levels on day two (31 Oct) and unsettled to active levels on day
three (01 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Oct 134
Predicted   30 Oct-01 Nov 132/130/130
90 Day Mean        29 Oct 129

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Oct  090/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Oct  019/027
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov  016/020-013/015-014/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/35
Minor Storm           30/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    65/50/50