:Product: 1030RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Oct 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
30/1451Z from Region 3130 (S24W84). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (31 Oct, 01 Nov, 02 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 585 km/s at 30/0345Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 30/0013Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
29/2213Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3715 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (31 Oct, 01
Nov, 02 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Oct 131
Predicted   31 Oct-02 Nov 130/130/130
90 Day Mean        30 Oct 129

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct  094/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Oct  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov  013/015-015/018-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/20
Minor Storm           15/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    50/50/30