:Product: 1031RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Oct 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
31/1331Z from Region 3135 (N27E25). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (01 Nov, 02 Nov, 03 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 555 km/s at 31/0522Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 31/1906Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
31/1428Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 4923 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (01 Nov, 02 Nov) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (03 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Oct 128
Predicted   01 Nov-03 Nov 130/132/134
90 Day Mean        31 Oct 130

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct  086/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Oct  012/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov  015/018-011/012-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/15
Minor Storm           20/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    55/45/25