:Product: 1101RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Nov 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Nov 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Nov,
03 Nov, 04 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 514 km/s at 31/2227Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 31/2107Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
01/0603Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1783 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (02 Nov) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (03 Nov, 04 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Nov 128
Predicted   02 Nov-04 Nov 130/135/135
90 Day Mean        01 Nov 130

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Oct  108/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Nov  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov  011/010-008/010-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/15/30
Minor Storm           10/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    45/25/40