:Product: 1102RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Nov 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 306 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Nov 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
02/0214Z from Region 3135 (N26E00). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Nov,
04 Nov, 05 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 544 km/s at 02/2045Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 02/1647Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
02/1833Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 6466 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Nov), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (04 Nov) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three
(05 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Nov 130
Predicted   03 Nov-05 Nov 130/130/135
90 Day Mean        02 Nov 130

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Nov  084/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Nov  011/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Nov-05 Nov  010/012-008/012-016/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/40
Minor Storm           15/15/30
Major-severe storm    01/01/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    55/55/65