:Product: 1103RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Nov 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 307 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Nov 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
03/0723Z from Region 3136 (S08E09). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 Nov,
05 Nov, 06 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 590 km/s at 03/2023Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 03/0937Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 03/1507Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 2584 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (04 Nov, 05
Nov) and quiet to active levels on day three (06 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Nov 125
Predicted   04 Nov-06 Nov 130/135/135
90 Day Mean        03 Nov 130

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Nov   NA/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Nov  017/026
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov  016/022-021/030-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/35
Minor Storm           25/30/20
Major-severe storm    05/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/05/10
Minor Storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    65/70/50