:Product: 1105RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Nov 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
04/2227Z from Region 3141 (N15E75). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Nov,
07 Nov, 08 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 551 km/s at 04/2102Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 04/2235Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
05/0702Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 8029 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (06 Nov, 07 Nov)
and unsettled levels on day three (08 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Nov 131
Predicted   06 Nov-08 Nov 130/130/130
90 Day Mean        05 Nov 130

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov  012/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov  010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov  009/008-007/008-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    30/30/35