:Product: 1107RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Nov 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
07/0011Z from Region 3141 (N14E39). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (08 Nov, 09 Nov, 10 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 429 km/s at 07/1603Z. Total IMF
reached 15 nT at 07/1655Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-14 nT at 07/1658Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 9398 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (08 Nov, 09
Nov, 10 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Nov 135
Predicted   08 Nov-10 Nov 135/130/130
90 Day Mean        07 Nov 131

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Nov  016/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov  011/012-010/012-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor Storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    45/45/45