:Product: 1108RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Nov 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
08/1702Z from Region 3141 (N14E25). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class or X-class flare on days one, two, and
three (09 Nov, 10 Nov, 11 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 433 km/s at 08/0652Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 08/0003Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
08/0906Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 364 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (09 Nov, 10 Nov) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (11 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Nov 132
Predicted   09 Nov-11 Nov 130/130/130
90 Day Mean        08 Nov 131

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov  012/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Nov  011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov  010/012-011/012-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/20
Minor Storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    45/45/35