:Product: 1109RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Nov 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
09/2005Z from Region 3140 (N26E03). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Nov,
11 Nov, 12 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 382 km/s at 09/1241Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 08/2120Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
08/2359Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 484 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (10 Nov,
11 Nov, 12 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Nov 138
Predicted   10 Nov-12 Nov 135/135/140
90 Day Mean        09 Nov 131

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov  008/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Nov  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov  011/010-007/010-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    30/30/25