:Product: 1111RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Nov 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
11/0714Z from Region 3141 (N14W14). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (12 Nov, 13 Nov, 14 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 433 km/s at 11/2042Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 11/1901Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
11/1332Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1135 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (12 Nov) and quiet levels on
days two and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (12 Nov, 13 Nov, 14 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Nov 138
Predicted   12 Nov-14 Nov 140/140/130
90 Day Mean        11 Nov 132

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Nov  002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Nov  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov  012/012-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/15
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    30/20/20