:Product: 1114RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Nov 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
14/1340Z from Region 3140 (N25W62). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (15 Nov, 16 Nov, 17 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 528 km/s at 13/2300Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
14/1136Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
14/1745Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 207 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (15 Nov, 16 Nov)
and quiet levels on day three (17 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (15 Nov, 16 Nov, 17 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
Class M    45/45/35
Class X    15/15/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Nov 142
Predicted   15 Nov-17 Nov 142/138/132
90 Day Mean        14 Nov 132

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Nov  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov  008/010-010/010-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/15
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    30/30/20